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China has announced new climate targets through 2030, emphasizing its commitment to reaching peak carbon emissions on schedule while accelerating the shift to cleaner energy sources.
The government aims to reduce carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product by 17% from 2025 levels by the end of the decade. It also plans to increase the share of non-fossil fuels in the country’s total energy consumption to 25%. Additionally, the plan stipulates that any new electricity demand should be met with additional clean power generation whenever possible.
This updated road map builds upon a 2021 action plan for carbon peaking before 2030, which outlined the country’s overarching decarbonization strategy. The new targets include expanding installed wind and solar capacity to over 2.8 billion kilowatts by 2030, growing distributed photovoltaic systems, hastening the development of ultra-high-voltage power transmission lines, and advancing virtual power plant projects.
Experts highlight that these measures will also bolster energy security. According to a leading think tank under the national development and reform commission, expanding renewable energy sources to meet rising electricity needs will significantly reduce reliance on imported fossil fuels. As energy and industrial security grow more fragile amid global uncertainties, this shift is seen as vital.
Industry insiders note that the primary focus of the plan is ensuring that new electricity demands are satisfied by additional clean energy sources. They explain that future growth in wind and solar installations will depend not only on how quickly projects are built but also on improvements in electricity dispatch, demand-side consumption, and market pricing mechanisms.
A recent interview with an executive at a regional state-owned energy company revealed that distributed photovoltaic projects are currently facing declining returns. The company is exploring participation in virtual power plants through project aggregation, although a clear profit model has yet to emerge.
The executive further explained that these aggregated distributed PV projects mainly participate in virtual power plant markets through demand response and ancillary services. However, limited market invitations hinder accurate assessment of project economics, and there is a need for better pricing policies to support further development.
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