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Emergency responders work at the site of an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane crash near Aktau, Kazakhstan, on December 25, 2024. — Reuters
NEW DELHI: Growing geopolitical tensions and armed conflicts worldwide are not only causing human suffering but are also significantly impacting the aviation sector, as airlines face increased operational burdens and decreased profitability.
Industry leaders report that airlines are struggling with the challenges posed by missile attacks, drone strikes, airspace closures, and the risk of passenger flights being shot down.
The contemporary battlefield often involves missiles, with airlines incurring heavy costs and losing customer base due to last-minute flight cancellations and expensive reroutes. The aviation industry, renowned for its safety record, is investing heavily in data analysis and security measures.
"Flight planning in such an unpredictable environment is exceptionally challenging. The aviation sector is built on predictability, and any disruption leads to increased costs," stated Guy Murray, head of aviation security at TUI Airline in Europe.
As airspace closures escalate, particularly around Russia, Ukraine, the Middle East, and parts of Africa, airlines find themselves with fewer viable routes. Mark Zee, founder of OPSGROUP, a service that provides flight risk data, noted that over half of the countries typically crossed on a Europe-Asia flight now require thorough assessment prior to departure.
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has resulted in commercial flights sharing airspace with sudden drone and missile attacks along critical flight paths—some incidents reportedly occurring within sight of cockpit crews and passengers.
Russian airports, particularly in Moscow, are frequently shut down due to drone activity, while GPS spoofing and jamming are on the rise near global political faultlines.
Following heightened tensions between India and Pakistan last month, both nations restricted each other’s airspace.
"Airspace shouldn’t be weaponized in retaliatory moves, yet it is," remarked Nick Careen, International Air Transport Association (IATA) senior vice president for operations, safety, and security, during a press conference at IATA’s annual meeting in New Delhi.
Isidre Porqueras, the COO at Indian airline IndiGo, emphasized that recent flight diversions are undermining progress made in reducing emissions and boosting operational efficiency.
Airlines Under Fire
Beyond financial implications, the gravest concern for civil aviation is the potential for an aircraft to be struck—either unintentionally or deliberately—by a missile.
An Azerbaijan Airlines flight tragically crashed in Kazakhstan in December, claiming 38 lives after being mistakenly targeted by Russian air defenses, according to sources including Azerbaijan’s president and Reuters. In another incident the previous October, a cargo plane was shot down in Sudan, resulting in the death of five individuals.
According to aviation risk consultancy Osprey Flight Solutions, since 2001, six commercial flights have been shot down with three near misses reported.
As conflicts escalate, governments need to enhance information-sharing protocols to secure civil aviation. IATA Director General Willie Walsh emphasized this necessity during a recent address.
Though safety records within the commercial aviation industry indicate a steady decline in accidents over the last two decades, these figures do not encompass security incidents involving weaponry.
In February, IATA highlighted that flights operating in conflict zones represent a top priority for global safety coordination.
Route Adjustments and Safety Risks
Each airline makes route decisions based on a mix of government advisories, security consultations, and information-sharing between carriers and nations, which can lead to inconsistent safety policies.
Since the onset of the Ukraine war in 2022, the closure of Russian airspace to Western carriers has placed them at a competitive disadvantage compared to airlines from China, India, and the Middle East, which still use shorter, fuel-efficient northern routes.
Changing risk assessments resulted in Singapore Airlines’ flight SQ326 from Singapore to Amsterdam taking three different paths within just over a year, according to tracking data from Flightradar24. Following missile and drone exchanges between Iran and Israel in April 2024, the flight began diverting over previously avoided Afghanistan rather than Iran. Recently, it adjusted again to steer clear of Pakistan’s airspace due to rising tensions with India. Now, SQ326 reaches Europe via the Persian Gulf and Iraq.
Pilots and flight attendants are increasingly concerned about how these inconsistent risk factors could affect their safety during flights.
"IATA insists that airlines should determine safety over conflict zones, not regulatory bodies. Yet, commercial pressures can influence these vital decisions," said Paul Reuter, vice president of the European Cockpit Association, representing pilots.
Flight crews are generally allowed to decline assignments based on airspace safety concerns, whether related to weather or conflict zones, according to IATA’s security chief Careen. "Most airlines prefer not to have crew members onboard if they are not comfortable flying," he assured.
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