The US will persist in attempting to craft a scenario that could lead to an end to Russia’s war in Ukraine, though success isn’t guaranteed, according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio in an interview with CBS on Sunday.
“If peace isn’t achievable and this action just continues as a war, thousands of lives will keep being lost… we might unfortunately end up there, but our goal is to avoid that,” Rubio stated during the “Face the Nation” interview.
European leaders are set to join Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Washington on Monday to support him as President Donald Trump pushes Ukraine to agree to a rapid peace settlement following his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday.
Rubio mentioned that some discussions from that meeting hold potential for breakthroughs and progress, especially regarding security guarantees for Ukraine.
Sources indicate that Trump and Putin discussed proposals where Russia would give up small occupied areas in Ukraine in exchange for Ukraine ceding a large section of fortified territory in the east and stabilizing front lines elsewhere.
Rubio emphasized that both parties would need to make concessions for a peace agreement to be reached.
US President Donald Trump listens while Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi speaks at a joint press event at the White House in Washington, DC, on February 13, 2025. — Reuters
President Donald Trump’s recent criticism of India over trade policies and purchases of Russian oil threatens to undo twenty years of diplomatic progress. Experts and officials warn that this tension could also disrupt other areas of bilateral cooperation, as domestic political pressures push both nations toward hardened positions.
Indian opposition parties and the public have called on Prime Minister Narendra Modi to resist what they perceive as bullying by Trump. On Wednesday, Trump signed an executive order imposing an extra 25% duty on Indian imports, added to an existing 25% tariff, citing India’s significant Russian oil imports as the reason.
Although India has become a strategic partner for Washington in its rivalry with China, its sizable US trade surplus and close ties with Russia—currently under pressure from Trump to negotiate peace with Ukraine—have made it a prime target in the Republican leader’s global tariff strategy.
Trump’s suggestion that India could source oil from its rival Pakistan has also been poorly received in New Delhi, according to two Indian government sources. Additionally, India has rejected repeated claims by Trump that he used trade leverage to influence a recent conflict between Pakistan and India.
This week, India issued a strong statement criticizing the US for applying two different standards—targeting Indian Russian oil imports while continuing to buy Russian uranium hexafluoride, palladium, and fertilizers. The government called the tariffs “unfair, unjustified, and unreasonable,” vowing to take all necessary measures to safeguard national interests.
However, officials recognize that further escalation could harm India beyond economic matters. Unlike China, India lacks leverage—such as rare earth mineral supplies—to compel the US to improve trade terms. Over recent years, successive US administrations, including Trump’s, have actively cultivated a relationship with India, viewing it as a key partner to counter China’s growing influence.
Nonetheless, analysts argue that Trump’s recent approaches have possibly brought the relationship to its lowest point since 1998, when the US imposed sanctions on India after nuclear tests.
“India finds itself in a difficult spot: due to Trump’s pressure, Modi might reduce Russian oil purchases, but he can’t openly admit it for fear of unraveling diplomatic efforts or appearing to capitulate,” explains Ashley Tellis of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.
“We risk a needless crisis that could undo a quarter-century of progress with India.”
Recently, Indian state refiners have halted Russian oil imports as discounts diminish and pressure from Trump increases, according to Reuters.
New Strains in the Relationship
Another major challenge is the divergence in priorities, particularly on issues like work visas for tech workers and offshoring services, which are sensitive topics in US domestic politics.
A crane moves containers at Deendayal Port in Kandla, Gujarat, India, on April 5, 2025. — Reuters
India has historically benefited from US work visa programs and outsourcing of software and business services—areas that have caused friction, as Americans have lost jobs to cheaper Indian workers. Experts warn that relations could become a political battleground within the US, where issues like immigration, deportation, and international tech collaboration spark intense partisan debate.
Since the 2008 nuclear technology cooperation agreement, the two countries have deepened intelligence sharing and defense collaborations, while also expanding engagement with Australia and Japan through the Quad to counter China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
Despite Modi’s good rapport with Trump and then-President Biden, cracks have appeared. For instance, images from February showing Indians deported on US military aircraft—shackled and distressed—stunned the nation just days before Modi’s visit to Trump to discuss tariff issues.
The relationship was further strained in late 2023 when the US claimed to have thwarted a plot involving Indian links to an assassination attempt on a Sikh separatist leader in the US. India denied any official involvement.
“The credibility of the Modi government in the US has declined,” said Sukh Deo Muni, a former diplomat and professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi. “There are those who believe India or Modi need to be ‘brought back on track,’ and if that trend continues, India faces significant challenges in navigation.”
Strengthening Ties with US Rivals
An Indian government source suggests that India is gradually repairing its relationship with the US while increasing engagement with other nations affected by Trump’s tariffs and aid reductions, including members of the BRICS bloc—Brazil, Russia, China, and South Africa—as well as the African Union.
BRICS leaders, including President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil, President Xi Jinping of China, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, pose for a group photo during the 2023 summit at the Sandton Convention Centre in Johannesburg, South Africa. — Reuters
India is taking steps to deepen relations with Russia and China. Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to visit New Delhi this year, and Russia has stated discussions on enhancing strategic defense cooperation are underway.
India has also increased engagement with China, following years of tension after a deadly border clash in 2020. Modi is scheduled to visit China soon for the first time since 2018.
“Russia will likely try to use the US-India rift by proposing the revival of the Russia-India-China trilateral and new defense projects,” commented Aleksei Zakharov of the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi. “India will be cautious of sanctions and seek a balanced approach in dealing with the US.”
The Shift in Global Alliances: Understanding Selective Alignments
In today’s geopolitical landscape, the notion of alliances is shifting dramatically. As leaders in the U.S., Europe, and Russia often engage in rhetoric that emphasizes competing ideologies, a closer look at public sentiment reveals a more nuanced reality. This blog explores how and why nations, particularly those classified as "middle powers," are increasingly favoring flexible partnerships over rigid alliances, a trend highlighted by recent survey data from the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECRF).
The New Era of Geopolitical Mindsets
The Cold War Mentality vs. Modern Perspectives
Historically, international relations were often viewed through a binary lens, reminiscent of the Cold War’s "us versus them" mentality. This perspective fostered an environment where nations were expected to choose sides based solely on ideological alignment. However, according to the ECRF analysis, contemporary global citizens are evaluating partnerships on a case-by-case basis, influenced by specific issues rather than overarching ideological commitments.
Contextualizing "Middle Powers"
Middle powers, countries that hold moderate influence and are not superpowers, play a crucial role in this shifting landscape. These nations, which include India, Brazil, South Korea, and others, demonstrate a keen interest in aligning based on particular issues such as human rights, security, and trade, rather than engaging in strict allegiance to any single larger power.
Survey Insights: Human Rights, Security, and Trade
Human Rights and Security Preferences
A survey conducted in 2023 across eight countries reveals striking insights into public preferences regarding partnerships. In terms of human rights and security, respondents expressed a strong inclination to align with the U.S. and its allies. Countries like South Korea, India, and Brazil showed keen interest, with over 60% of respondents opting for closer partnerships with the U.S. when it comes to these vital issues.
Interestingly, Russia stood apart as the only country where a larger share of respondents favored aligning with China over the U.S. in terms of security, indicating the complex and shifting loyalty dynamics at play.
Trade Alliances: A Different Story
Contrasting the preferences seen in human rights and security, trade unions emerged as a battlefield of allegiance. Five of the eight polled countries—including Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, and Indonesia—showed a tendency to favor China and its partners over the U.S. for trading purposes. Only India, Brazil, and South Korea displayed a more favorable bias towards U.S. partnership in trade, with the latter two showing minimal differences—a mere 5 percentage points—illustrating the delicate balance in navigating these alliances.
The Global Perception of Living Conditions
Quality of Life Considerations
While the allure of living in Europe and the U.S. generally remains strong, with these regions perceived as attractive places to live, survey respondents from various nations are not keen on full political alignment with any major power class. This sentiment underscores a growing desire for autonomy in international relations, where countries prioritize a pragmatic approach to diplomacy over ideological loyalty.
Conclusion (Omitted)
This intricate tapestry of global alliances reflects a more discerning global public that values flexibility and specificity in partnerships. As nations navigate the complexities of the modern geopolitical landscape, the emphasis is increasingly placed on evaluating relationships through the lens of individual interests rather than rigid ideological alignments.
