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  • Hurricane Hunters Spot Early Signs of Possible Storm Intensification

    Hurricane Hunters Spot Early Signs of Possible Storm Intensification

    Hurricane Melissa rapidly intensified after forming on October 21, 2025, reaching Category 5 strength by October 27. Credit: NOAA, Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA).

    Scientists have pinpointed several early indicators that can help meteorologists determine when a tropical cyclone is starting to organize and strengthen. Detecting these signs earlier could give communities more lead time to prepare for dangerous storms.

    This new insight is based on nearly 30 years of data collected by NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft.

    The research reveals that a tropical cyclone generally needs to become vertically aligned before it can undergo significant intensification.

    In simple terms, meteorologists describe this process as the storm needing to “stand up straight.”

    A cyclone is a vast rotating system that extends from just below the ocean surface upward into the atmosphere. Ideally, the centers of circulation at different heights are roughly aligned above each other.

    However, strong winds higher in the atmosphere can push the top of the storm away from its center near the surface, causing it to tilt.

    This separation between the lower and middle levels of the storm is called “tilt.” One common cause is vertical wind shear, which happens when wind speeds or directions change with altitude.

    When a storm is tilted, it usually struggles to strengthen. But once its various levels become aligned, environmental conditions become much more conducive to intensification.

    Researchers from the University of Miami and NOAA identified four key characteristics that are common in storms capable of straightening themselves out.

    These storms tend to have a strong, compact circulation close to the ocean surface. Their tilt aligns favorably with the surrounding wind shear. They also exhibit stronger upward-moving air and heavier rainfall near the storm’s lower center. Lastly, they are often situated in favorable environments, with warm ocean waters, abundant moisture, and relatively weak winds at mid-levels.

    The team analyzed data from the TC-RADAR database, which includes 1,510 radar analyses gathered by NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft over 28 hurricane seasons from 1997 to 2024.

    Crucially, storms that eventually straightened out showed noticeable signs about a day earlier. These signs included a more organized and stronger circulation close to the ocean surface and widespread, intense thunderstorms near the low-level center.

    Researchers believe these thunderstorms aren’t just indicators; their vigorous upward air movement might actually help reorient the tilted circulation into a more upright position.

    This discovery can be invaluable for predicting rapid intensification — sudden increases in storm strength over a short period — which often causes significant hazards because coastal areas may have limited warning time to evacuate or prepare.

    Hurricane Hunter aircraft already measure many of these features during routine missions, providing real-time data on whether a storm is becoming better organized.

    The findings could also improve the accuracy of computer models used to forecast hurricane behavior. Recognizing early signs of strengthening a day in advance could offer emergency planners and residents extra time to evacuate or take safety measures during a storm’s intense development phase.

  • Hurricane Melissa’s Toll Rises to 44 as Storm Moves North

    Hurricane Melissa’s Toll Rises to 44 as Storm Moves North

    Jules Marcelin shares the aftermath of Hurricane Melissa in Petit Goave, Haiti, where he lost two family members due to severe flooding. He shows the extensive damage to his home caused by the storm on October 30, 2025. — Reuters

    Confirmed fatalities include at least 25 in Haiti and 19 in Jamaica. Experts estimate damages could reach up to $52 billion. Hurricane Melissa is among the strongest storms ever recorded at landfall.

    —

    PORT-AU-PRINCE/KINGSTON/HAVANA: The death toll from Hurricane Melissa has risen to 44, according to official reports, after it caused widespread destruction throughout the northern Caribbean and gained speed heading toward Bermuda.

    In Jamaica, the government has confirmed at least 19 fatalities, but rescue efforts continue. The hurricane knocked out power to hundreds of thousands, tore roofs off buildings, and scattered debris and wreckage across fields.

    Jamaica’s military has mobilized reserve personnel to assist with relief and rescue operations.

    Melissa struck southwestern Jamaica as a Category 5 hurricane on Tuesday, marking the country’s strongest direct hit and the first major hurricane since 1988. Wind speeds exceeded the threshold for the hurricane’s top classification. AccuWeather reports it tied for the second-strongest Atlantic hurricane on record in terms of wind speed at landfall.

    Damage estimates range from $48 billion to $52 billion, encompassing both economic losses and physical destruction across the western Caribbean.

    Haiti, which was not directly impacted but suffered days of heavy rains from the slow-moving storm, reported at least 25 deaths, mostly in Petit-Goave, where a river overflowed, causing fatalities. A local road connecting to Jacmel was damaged and partially washed away by a swollen river, further compounded by previous storm damage from Hurricane Beryl last year.

    Cuba’s eastern regions were also affected, with roughly 735,000 residents evacuated. While no fatalities have been reported there as of Thursday, homes and crops sustained significant damage.

    By 8 p.m. (0000 GMT), Melissa had downgraded to a Category 1 storm, located 409 km (254 miles) southwest of Bermuda, with hurricane conditions expected on the island by nightfall, as the storm’s eye moved northwest.

    Maximum sustained winds are recorded at 105 mph (169 kph). Authorities in Bermuda are remaining cautious, closing the causeway Thursday night and postponing schools and ferry services on Friday.

    In the Bahamas, Melissa passed through Wednesday night. Storm warnings were lifted, but officials stopped short of declaring an all-clear, stating a decision on the safety of returning residents will be made by Saturday.

    —

    The front page of Thursday’s Jamaica Observer proclaimed “DEVASTATION” amid scenes of widespread impact. Kingston, though densely populated, avoided the worst damage and prepared to reopen its airport and port. Aid flights have begun arriving.

    Despite some areas showing less destruction, over 130 roads remain blocked by fallen trees, debris, and power lines, prompting the military to clear routes on foot. Ambulances follow behind to assist stranded residents.

    Satellite images reveal extensive damage in the hardest-hit areas: stripped trees, destroyed structures, and empty, defoliated landscapes.

    In Montego Bay, 77-year-old Alfred Hines waded through mud and debris, recalling his escape from rising floodwaters. “At one point, the water reached my waist, then around my neck, and I just made my way out,” he told Reuters. “I want to forget it and return to normal.”

    Across western Jamaica, residents flocked to supermarkets and gas stations for supplies. Tourist Chevelle Fitzgerald described her six-hour journey from Montego Bay to Kingston, noting the highway was blocked and numerous trees had fallen. Power remains out for over 70% of Jamaica’s electrical customers, with many schools lacking water and electricity.

    —

    Scientists warn that hurricanes are strengthening and occurring more frequently due to rising ocean temperatures linked to climate change. Many Caribbean leaders call on wealthier nations to provide reparations in aid or debt relief. Despite the U.N. establishing a funding mechanism for disaster response, donations have fallen short of targets.

    AccuWeather reports Melissa as the third most intense Caribbean hurricane on record and notes its slow movement has intensified its destructive impact. U.S. rescue teams are en route to assist Jamaica, with officials pledging immediate humanitarian aid to Cuba, which was also hit hard.

    Cuba, struck by Melissa as a Category 3 storm overnight, faces ongoing recovery challenges. Over 240 communities remain isolated with disrupted communications, affecting approximately 140,000 residents. Tourists were evacuated inland, and residents in Santiago, Cuba’s second-largest city, are beginning repairs after the storm.

  • Melissa Claims 30+ Lives as this year’s fiercest hurricane hits Caribbean

    Melissa Claims 30+ Lives as this year’s fiercest hurricane hits Caribbean

    Hurricane Melissa made landfall in Jamaica as the strongest storm ever recorded on the island, with sustained winds reaching 185 mph, surpassing the threshold for a Category 5 hurricane. The storm tore through Cuba’s second-largest city, leaving hundreds of rural communities cut off and causing widespread destruction. Haiti experienced heavy rainfall, resulting in at least 25 fatalities, including 10 children, primarily due to floods in Petit-Goave, a coastal town 40 miles west of Port-au-Prince, where a river overflowed. Over 1.3 million displaced Haitians faced flooding, with more than 1,000 homes inundated. Residents in makeshift camps described the flooding as life-threatening, with many struggling to sleep or sit due to rising waters, and aid efforts perceived as slow to deliver supplies.

    Melissa made landfall in southwestern Jamaica, devastating regions previously battered by Hurricane Beryl last year. Damage estimates from AccuWeather suggest losses of around $22 billion, with rebuilding projected to take over a decade. Floodwaters washed up four bodies in St. Elizabeth, and nearly 80% of Jamaica lost power. Kingston was spared the worst, with plans to reopen its main airport shortly. Prime Minister Andrew Holness visited Black River Hospital, where staff reported significant damage, including roofs torn off buildings and fields strewn with debris. Staff recounted working through the night under flashlight amid fears for their families, describing the experience as “like missiles blowing through the glass.”

    In Cuba, Melissa, still a Category 3 hurricane at landfall, struck overnight near Guama, west of Santiago de Cuba. The storm left 241 communities isolated, affecting approximately 140,000 residents. Authorities evacuated around 735,000 people across eastern Cuba as the storm approached. The president warned of widespread damage and advised vigilance as rains persisted. While no deaths were reported immediately, the storm caused extensive damage, damaging crops and complicating an already strained supply of food, fuel, and medicine. Cuba’s ongoing shortages have fueled record migration since 2021, and the UN General Assembly recently called for an end to the US embargo, which has hindered aid delivery.

    Meteorologists ranked Melissa as the third-most intense hurricane in the Caribbean, following Wilma in 2005 and Gilbert in 1988. Experts link the increase in hurricane intensity and frequency to rising ocean temperatures driven by climate change. Many Caribbean nations have urged wealthier countries to contribute aid or debt relief. The regional Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre emphasized the urgent need to enhance the UN’s “loss and damage” fund, established in 2023 to help vulnerable nations recover from increasingly severe weather events. Despite these efforts, funding remains insufficient, with the US withdrawing from the fund’s board earlier this year.

    Global responses to Melissa’s destruction included humanitarian aid, with some countries offering financial support, food supplies, and rescue teams. In Montego Bay, a tourist hotspot, a resident recounted a harrowing rescue where rescuers broke into her home to save her and her child as floodwaters reached her waist. She mourned lost trees planted by her father, highlighting the widespread personal and communal damage caused by the storm.

  • Hurricane Melissa, Jamaica’s fiercest storm, veers toward Cuba

    Hurricane Melissa, Jamaica’s fiercest storm, veers toward Cuba

    A man herds cattle along the shoreline in Santiago de Cuba, Cuba, on October 28, 2025, as Hurricane Melissa approaches landfall. — Reuters

    – The storm has left hundreds of thousands of Jamaicans without power.
    – Some areas in western Jamaica have been submerged underwater, according to officials.
    – Hurricane Melissa follows last year’s Beryl, which heavily impacted Jamaica.

    Hurricane Melissa advanced toward Cuba’s second-largest city as a formidable Category 4 hurricane early Tuesday, just hours after making landfall in Jamaica—marking the strongest cyclone ever recorded to hit the island nation.

    Melissa made landfall near New Hope in southwestern Jamaica, with sustained winds reaching 185 mph (295 kph), according to the US National Hurricane Center. This wind speed exceeds the 157 mph (252 kph) threshold required for a Category 5 classification—the highest category on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

    In Jamaica’s St. Elizabeth parish, floodwaters overtook the area, and over 500,000 residents lost their power. Prime Minister Andrew Holness reported to CNN that damage includes destruction of hospitals, significant harm to homes and businesses, and damage to road infrastructure. While no confirmed storm-related deaths have been reported, Holness cautioned that, given Melissa’s force and destruction, some loss of life is anticipated.

    Winds have decreased slightly to 145 mph (233 kph) as Melissa drifts over the mountainous terrain of Jamaica, threatening landslides and flooding in highland communities. The storm is expected to veer northeast toward Santiago de Cuba, Cuba’s second most populous city.

    Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel issued a warning, stating, “We should already feel the cyclone’s main impact this afternoon and evening,” and urged residents to follow evacuation orders. Cuba has instructed approximately 500,000 people to relocate to higher ground. Meanwhile, in the Bahamas, officials ordered evacuations in southern regions as Melissa’s path takes it northeast. Some parts of Hispaniola, shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic, have experienced days of intense rainfall, causing at least four fatalities.

    There have been reports of at least three deaths in Jamaica during storm preparations, and a disaster management official suffered a stroke during the storm’s onset and was hospitalized. Many areas remain isolated as of late Tuesday.

    Jamaica, no stranger to hurricanes, had never before been directly hit by such a powerful Category 4 or 5 storm, prompting the government to call for international aid even as they prepared for Melissa’s arrival.

    Meteorologists from AccuWeather ranked Melissa as the third most intense hurricane in the Caribbean after Wilma (2005) and Gilbert (1988)—the last major landfall storm in Jamaica. Anne-Claire Fontan, a tropical cyclone expert with the World Meteorological Organization, described the situation as “catastrophic,” warning of storm surges reaching up to four meters high. She referred to Melissa as “the storm of the century” for Jamaica.

    Aid worker Colin Bogle, based near Kingston, reported hearing a loud explosion before losing power and witnessing trees violently tossed by the storm. He described the experience as “like a roaring lion,” filled with fear and frustration over ongoing climate crises affecting Jamaica, which is often hit by such devastating weather events.

    Climate scientists warn that hurricanes are growing stronger and more frequent due to rising ocean temperatures. Many Caribbean leaders have urged wealthy nations to provide reparations, including aid and debt relief, to help these island nations cope with climate-related disasters.

    Melissa’s size and intensity increased over the unusually warm Caribbean waters, while its slow movement has the potential for significant destruction. Relief efforts will require urgent food aid, equipment, transportation parts, and seeds for farmers, especially since Melissa crossed some of Jamaica’s most productive agricultural zones, similar to last year’s Beryl.

    Prime Minister Holness stated Monday that the government has set aside a $33 million emergency budget, along with insurance and credit facilities, prepared to cover damages exceeding those caused by Beryl.

    Melissa first made landfall in southwestern Jamaica, near the boundary between Westmoreland and St. Elizabeth, regions severely affected by Beryl. Floodwaters inundated St. Elizabeth, and its sole public hospital lost power and sustained severe damage. Rescue teams managed to reach stranded families, including those with infants.

    In Portland Cottage, about 150 km (94 miles) from the epicenter, 64-year-old retiree Collin Henry McDonald reported heavy rain and winds but noted his concrete roof held firm. He described the storm as “like a roaring lion, really mad.”

    By late Tuesday, approximately 15,000 Jamaicans were in emergency shelters, with the government ordering mandatory evacuations for 28,000 residents—many reluctant to leave their homes. The Red Cross estimates that up to 1.5 million Jamaicans could be directly affected.

  • Hurricane Melissa Hits Jamaica Coastline

    Hurricane Melissa Hits Jamaica Coastline

    Hurricane Melissa made landfall in Jamaica on Tuesday as a Category 5 storm, according to the latest update from the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). It ranks among the most powerful hurricane landings ever recorded in the Atlantic basin, the NHC noted.

    Earlier, the NHC reported that the storm, the maximum intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale, was approximately 34 miles southeast of Negril, Jamaica, at 4:00 p.m. GMT. It was producing sustained winds of 183 miles per hour, with stronger gusts. The Miami-based hurricane center warned that Melissa’s path could lead to widespread structural failures.

    Anne-Claire Fontan, a tropical cyclone specialist with the World Meteorological Organization, described the situation as catastrophic. “For Jamaica, this will be the storm of the century for sure,” she said during a press briefing.

    Satellite images showed Hurricane Melissa southeast of Jamaica at 12:00 UTC on October 28, 2025. Forecasters anticipated storm surges reaching up to four meters, coupled with rainfall exceeding 27 inches, which could cause severe flash flooding and landslides.

    Haiti and the Dominican Republic have already experienced days of heavy rainfall, leading to at least four fatalities. In Jamaica, local reports indicated that three people had died during storm preparations.

    The NHC projects the storm will impact Jamaica on Tuesday, maintaining its strength as a powerful hurricane when crossing eastern Cuba, then moving over the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos by Wednesday. The Bahamian government has ordered evacuations in the southern and eastern parts of the islands, while Cuba has evacuated around 500,000 residents from vulnerable areas.

    Melissa’s slow progress over unusually warm Caribbean waters contributed to its rapid intensification, with forecasts predicting up to 30 inches of rain in parts of Jamaica and up to 12 inches on Hispaniola.

    The Red Cross estimates that approximately 1.5 million people in Jamaica could be directly affected by the hurricane. Necephor Mghendi, an official with the IFRC, highlighted the challenges ahead, noting, “Today will be very difficult for tens of thousands, if not millions, of people in Jamaica. Roofs will be tested, floodwaters will rise, and many will face isolation.”

    To facilitate effective aid distribution, essential supplies such as tarps, hygiene kits, blankets, and clean drinking water have already been pre-positioned at Red Cross facilities across the island, with over 800 shelters prepared for evacuees.

    Prime Minister Andrew Holness mandated mandatory evacuations in southern Jamaica, including the historic Port Royal. He warned of extensive damage to farms, homes, and infrastructure, emphasizing that the island’s facilities are not built to withstand a Category 5 hurricane. The government has allocated a $33 million emergency response budget, alongside insurance and credit lines to cover damages, slightly exceeding the impact of Hurricane Beryl—an early record-setter for rapid intensification into a Category 5 storm.

    Scientists continue to warn that climate change-driven warming of ocean waters is likely to produce stronger, faster-moving hurricanes. Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter from AccuWeather remarked, “Slow-moving major hurricanes often become some of the deadliest and most destructive storms in history. We are witnessing a dire situation unfolding in slow motion.”

  • Hurricane Melissa Strikes Jamaica as Deadly Cat 5 Storm

    Hurricane Melissa Strikes Jamaica as Deadly Cat 5 Storm

    Hurricane Melissa was intensifying, with sustained winds reaching 175 mph (282 km/h) on Monday afternoon. The slow-moving Category 5 storm was expected to strike Jamaica, potentially marking the largest hurricane on record for the Caribbean island. By 2 p.m. (1800 GMT), the National Hurricane Center classified Melissa as a “catastrophic” storm—the highest category on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Forecasts indicated Melissa would hit Jamaica late Monday or early Tuesday, then pass over eastern Cuba the next night, before moving toward the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos by Wednesday.

    The storm’s sluggish pace over unusually warm Caribbean waters had caused it to grow in size and intensity. Forecasters warned Jamaica could face days of unprecedented destructive winds and up to three feet of rain. Melissa’s wind field now spans a distance greater than the length of Jamaica, an island roughly the size of Connecticut, with its main airports perilously close to sea level.

    Hours after mandating evacuations in southern Jamaica, including the historic Port Royal, Prime Minister Andrew Holness appealed for international support. He warned of severe damage to farms, homes, and infrastructure such as bridges, roads, ports, and airports. Despite the orders, some residents hesitated to leave fearing looting, and officials announced buses would soon transport around 28,000 people forced to evacuate.

    “There’s no infrastructure capable of withstanding a Category 5 hurricane,” Holness stated. The government had prepared a $33 million emergency response fund, along with insurance and credit options for damages surpassing last year’s hurricane, Beryl. While Beryl was the earliest and fastest Atlantic hurricane to reach Category 5, scientists warn climate change is fueling stronger and faster storms due to warmer ocean waters, increasing the fuel for seasonal hurricanes.

    “Thousands of families are experiencing hours of intense winds over 100 mph and days of relentless, heavy rain,” said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter. “The slow movement of such major hurricanes often results in some of the deadliest and most destructive storms in history. This is a slow-motion disaster unfolding before our eyes.”

    Jamaica has weathered many hurricanes, including the devastating Category 4 Hurricane Gilbert in 1988. However, a direct hit from a Category 5 has never occurred there, according to Evan Thompson of Jamaica’s Meteorological Service. Porter noted that Melissa is moving significantly slower than Gilbert, which hit Jamaica directly over three decades ago. Residents are advised to prepare for days indoors, with some areas potentially cut off for weeks.

    Damian Anderson, a teacher from Hagley Gap in the Blue Mountains, said impassable roads had already cut off his community. “We can’t move. We’re scared. We’ve never experienced a multi-day hurricane like this before,” he admitted.

    In neighboring Haiti and the Dominican Republic, days of heavy rainfall have already caused severe flooding and at least four fatalities. In Haiti’s impoverished southern regions, over 3,650 residents have sought shelter in designated safe zones, with flights suspended and maritime activities halted. Meanwhile, the Bahamas’ Prime Minister Philip Davis ordered evacuations in southern and eastern areas, and eastern Cuba prepared extensively, evacuating over 500,000 residents from vulnerable coastal and mountainous zones. Schools and transportation across eastern Cuba have been shut down, and more than 250,000 people have sought refuge in shelters around Santiago de Cuba, which is directly in Melissa’s predicted path.

  • Caribbean Islands Hit Hard as Hurricane Erin Reaches Category 5

    Caribbean Islands Hit Hard as Hurricane Erin Reaches Category 5

    Waves swell as a Category 5 Hurricane Erin nears San Juan, Puerto Rico on August 16, 2025. —AFP

    – Erin escalates from Category 1 directly to Category 5 in just over 24 hours.
    – The storm’s center is approximately 135 miles northwest of Anguilla.
    – It is battering Caribbean islands with rain and strong winds but not expected to make landfall.

    Hurricane Erin intensifies swiftly offshore into a “catastrophic” Category 5 storm on Saturday, bringing heavy rain and wind to Caribbean islands. Weather officials have issued warnings for potential flash floods and mudslides.

    The first hurricane of what is predicted to be a notably active Atlantic hurricane season, Erin is expected to drench islands with rain and gusty winds without actually hitting land.

    According to the latest update from the US National Hurricane Center (NHC), maximum sustained winds have soared to 160 mph (255 km/h). The storm’s eye is situated roughly 135 miles (215 km) northwest of Anguilla in the northern Leeward Islands, which includes the US and British Virgin Islands.

    A flash flood warning has been issued for Saint Thomas and Saint John in the US Virgin Islands as outer rain bands from Erin move across. Additionally, tropical storm watches are in effect for St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, Sint Maarten, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

    Earlier Saturday, the NHC declared, “Erin is now a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane,” indicating winds exceeding 157 mph and major danger. It reached this intensity just over a day after transforming from a Category 1 hurricane—a rapid intensification that scientists attribute to global warming.

    Meteorologists forecast the storm will drift over the weekend just north of the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. It is expected to pass east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas late Sunday before gradually weakening.

    Isolated areas might experience up to six inches (15 centimeters) of rain, posing flood risks. The NHC warned of possible flash flooding, urban flooding, and landslides.

    Swells from Erin will impact parts of the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos through the weekend. These waves will reach the Bahamas, Bermuda, and U.S. East Coast early next week, creating life-threatening surf and rip currents.

    The hurricane is forecast to shift northwest Saturday night and then turn north early next week, weakening from Monday onward. While experts are confident Erin will stay offshore, dangerous waves and erosion could affect areas like North Carolina.

    The Atlantic hurricane season, running from June through late November, is predicted to be more intense than usual. Last year brought several powerful storms, including Hurricane Helene, which caused over 200 fatalities in the southeastern United States.

    The NOAA, which manages the NHC, has faced budget cuts and staffing reductions due to government austerity measures. Scientists note that climate change—specifically, rising sea temperatures from fossil fuel combustion—increases the likelihood of more severe and rapidly intensifying storms.

  • US Weather Agency Predicts Erin May Reach Category 5

    US Weather Agency Predicts Erin May Reach Category 5

    Hurricane Erin, the first storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, has strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane and is moving westward near Puerto Rico, according to satellite imagery from August 16, 2025. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts additional intensification this afternoon, with the potential for Erin to reach Category 5 status.

    Currently, Erin is situated approximately 120 miles northeast of Anguilla, with peak sustained winds of 145 mph. The storm’s swells are affecting the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands throughout the weekend. These swells are expected to extend to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the U.S. East Coast early next week.

    Heavy rainfall from Erin is anticipated to impact the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through Sunday, contributing to potential flooding and hazardous conditions.

  • US Braces for Harsh Hurricane Season Amid Trump’s Climate Cuts

    US Braces for Harsh Hurricane Season Amid Trump’s Climate Cuts

    Horseshoe Beach, Florida, September 28, 2024. — Reuters

    WASHINGTON: The United States is bracing for a more intense and potentially perilous hurricane season this year, with forecasts suggesting that stronger storms are on the way.

    As risks escalate, the Trump administration is reducing jobs and funding within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the country’s primary agency for weather and climate. Experts are warning that these budget cuts could hinder the ability to monitor storms effectively and ensure public safety.

    On Thursday, NOAA announced expectations for a more severe Atlantic hurricane season in 2024.

    They predict a 60 percent chance of an above-average season, estimating between 13 to 19 named storms, with winds reaching 39 mph (63 kph) or more.

    Among these, six to ten are anticipated to escalate into hurricanes with winds of at least 74 mph, including three to five major hurricanes classified as categories three, four, or five, featuring sustained winds exceeding 111 mph.

    Moreover, there’s a 30 percent likelihood of a near-normal season and a 10 percent chance of a below-average season, according to the agency.

    The administration is also attempting to disband the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), proposing to transfer its responsibilities to individual states.

    The acting head of FEMA, Cameron Hamilton—who was appointed by the Trump administration—was dismissed earlier this month after asserting that eliminating the agency was not “in the best interests of the American public.”

    Warming Oceans

    This forecast is influenced by several factors: neutral conditions in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern, warmer-than-average sea temperatures, predictions of low wind shear, and heightened activity from the West African Monsoon, which serves as a precursor to Atlantic hurricanes.

    “As we experienced last year with significant inland flooding caused by hurricanes Helene and Debby, the effects of hurricanes can stretch well beyond coastal areas,” stated Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm.

    “NOAA plays an essential role in providing timely and accurate forecasts and warnings, along with the scientific knowledge needed to save lives and property.”

    However, Rick Spinrad, a former NOAA administrator, expressed considerable concern regarding the agency’s capacity to respond after significant layoffs of meteorologists, technicians, and other critical personnel, initiated by Elon Musk’s so-called “Department of Government Efficiency.”

    “I’m worried about our ability to operate planes, run simulations, and answer calls as these storms approach our shores—all while the Weather Service is also dealing with tornadoes, wildfires, floods, and extreme precipitation,” Spinrad said.

    Sea temperatures have been rising for decades, primarily due to fossil fuel consumption. “Thus, climate change undeniably contributes to the ocean temperatures that are crucial to this forecast,” Spinrad noted.

    President Donald Trump is aiming to trim NOAA’s research budget by $1.3 billion next year. The administration’s Project 2025, a conservative agenda guiding its second-term policies, has identified the agency as a key source of “climate alarmism.”

    Last year, five named storms inflicted economic losses exceeding a billion dollars, adjusted for inflation, according to NOAA data.

    The deadliest of these was Hurricane Helene, which caused 250 fatalities in the U.S.—the highest toll since Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

    Earlier this month, the Trump administration announced it would cease updates to its billion-dollar disaster database, which for 44 years has illustrated the increasing costs of climate instability.