WASHINGTON: The United States is bracing for a more intense and potentially perilous hurricane season this year, with forecasts suggesting that stronger storms are on the way.
As risks escalate, the Trump administration is reducing jobs and funding within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the country’s primary agency for weather and climate. Experts are warning that these budget cuts could hinder the ability to monitor storms effectively and ensure public safety.
On Thursday, NOAA announced expectations for a more severe Atlantic hurricane season in 2024.
They predict a 60 percent chance of an above-average season, estimating between 13 to 19 named storms, with winds reaching 39 mph (63 kph) or more.
Among these, six to ten are anticipated to escalate into hurricanes with winds of at least 74 mph, including three to five major hurricanes classified as categories three, four, or five, featuring sustained winds exceeding 111 mph.
Moreover, there’s a 30 percent likelihood of a near-normal season and a 10 percent chance of a below-average season, according to the agency.
The administration is also attempting to disband the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), proposing to transfer its responsibilities to individual states.
The acting head of FEMA, Cameron Hamilton—who was appointed by the Trump administration—was dismissed earlier this month after asserting that eliminating the agency was not “in the best interests of the American public.”
Warming Oceans
This forecast is influenced by several factors: neutral conditions in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern, warmer-than-average sea temperatures, predictions of low wind shear, and heightened activity from the West African Monsoon, which serves as a precursor to Atlantic hurricanes.
“As we experienced last year with significant inland flooding caused by hurricanes Helene and Debby, the effects of hurricanes can stretch well beyond coastal areas,” stated Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm.
“NOAA plays an essential role in providing timely and accurate forecasts and warnings, along with the scientific knowledge needed to save lives and property.”
However, Rick Spinrad, a former NOAA administrator, expressed considerable concern regarding the agency’s capacity to respond after significant layoffs of meteorologists, technicians, and other critical personnel, initiated by Elon Musk’s so-called “Department of Government Efficiency.”
“I’m worried about our ability to operate planes, run simulations, and answer calls as these storms approach our shores—all while the Weather Service is also dealing with tornadoes, wildfires, floods, and extreme precipitation,” Spinrad said.
Sea temperatures have been rising for decades, primarily due to fossil fuel consumption. “Thus, climate change undeniably contributes to the ocean temperatures that are crucial to this forecast,” Spinrad noted.
President Donald Trump is aiming to trim NOAA’s research budget by $1.3 billion next year. The administration’s Project 2025, a conservative agenda guiding its second-term policies, has identified the agency as a key source of “climate alarmism.”
Last year, five named storms inflicted economic losses exceeding a billion dollars, adjusted for inflation, according to NOAA data.
The deadliest of these was Hurricane Helene, which caused 250 fatalities in the U.S.—the highest toll since Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
Earlier this month, the Trump administration announced it would cease updates to its billion-dollar disaster database, which for 44 years has illustrated the increasing costs of climate instability.
