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As Americans head to the polls for what many consider a pivotal presidential election, the nation finds itself in a precarious position. In key states that could sway the final outcome, the margins between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump are extremely close.
These narrow margins, combined with a general haze surrounding today’s political landscape, make forecasting the election’s results exceedingly difficult.
Polls may not accurately reflect the current state of the electorate; significant shifts may have occurred since 2020 that will only become clear after the votes are tallied. The truth is, there’s a lot we don’t know, and it may be challenging to unravel the complexities that constitute American politics.
With two assassination attempts directed at Trump and President Joe Biden’s surprising withdrawal from the race back in August, this election could yield even more unexpected developments. Presently, three main scenarios could unfold on Election Day, each presenting distinct challenges for the United States and the globe.
Scenario 1: Trump’s Comeback
One possibility is that Trump makes history by reclaiming the White House. Only Grover Cleveland has previously succeeded in being elected president again after losing a prior bid, which he accomplished in 1892.
If Trump wins, he might replicate his 2016 strategy by breaking through the “blue wall” and capturing crucial battleground states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Achieving this would likely suggest that his approach of rallying male voters has proven effective.
A Trump victory would mark the culmination of a long-term plan for the American right. A second term for Trump would likely differ significantly from his first, as his movement is now better organized, focused, and aware of past errors. Additionally, he would face a considerably weakened set of democratic safeguards.
Implementing a radical agenda—possibly along the lines of the broader far-right initiatives outlined in the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025—could dramatically transform American life, leading to political and economic instability. The international community would once again need to adapt to a Trump-led America.
Trump may make history and win back the White House. (AP Photo/Mike Stewart)
Scenario 2: Harris Makes Historic Gains
Alternatively, Harris could achieve a landmark victory—not only by defeating Trump but by becoming the first woman of color to serve as president of the United States.
Should Harris emerge victorious, it would likely be through key battleground states, particularly Pennsylvania and Georgia. Her success would depend on significant turnout among women and voters of color, particularly African Americans, as well as a coalition of this core Democratic base with swing voters in pivotal states.
The nature of Harris’ win, including the margin, will significantly influence both the immediate post-election landscape and the future direction of her administration.
A critical question: can she secure a decisive win to negate any backlash from Trump and his supporters? As Australian author Don Watson has pointed out, a Harris victory might be viewed as a profound defeat by the MAGA movement. The response from Trump’s supporters, and how American institutions handle that reaction, will be a vital test for the nation’s democratic principles.
If Harris does win, it will likely be through one or more of the battleground states. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)
Scenario 3: A Deadlocked Race
The final scenario is that the polling is accurate and the race is so tight that the margins in battleground states are just a few thousand votes, or even less.
In such a scenario, vote counting could stretch out for days, leading to potential recounts. Despite rampant conspiracy theories, such a delay would be a routine outcome in the U.S. Given that elections are administered state by state and often county by county, the process varies widely.
For instance, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin legally cannot commence counting mail-in ballots until polls open on Election Day. Additionally, terms like “blue shift” or “red mirage" describe the phenomenon where early results might favor one candidate, only for the votes to swing as different ballots are counted.
Counting could take days. Additionally, recounts may also be necessary. (AP Photo/Mike Stewart)
In the 2020 election, initial leads for Trump fizzled out as more Biden votes were counted. Research indicated that counties won by Biden generally took longer to tally. This is completely normal and in line with legal counting protocols that ensure accuracy.
However, Trump and his allies have exploited these variations in counting speeds to spread unfounded conspiracy theories, which have eroded public trust in the electoral system and stoked unrest. He famously declared victory prematurely amid the early tallies in 2020, stirring a controversy that significantly contributed to the events of January 6, 2021.
This scenario might repeat itself in the upcoming election, particularly with Trump having recently expressed that results should be determined by a specific time on Election Night, setting the stage for renewed conspiracy theories.
Normal Delays – But Risky
Trump has made it abundantly clear that he will refuse to accept another electoral defeat. Should he lose, he or his team may try to leverage similar conspiracy theories alongside legal challenges to votes, as they did in 2020, to contest the results and rally his supporters.
In the event of close results, some states may also be subject to recounts, which operate under various rules. For instance, in Georgia, candidates can request a recount if the margin is within 0.5%. In 2020, Biden defeated Trump in Georgia by just 0.25%, triggering a hand recount approximately two weeks after the election.
This is a normal procedure and is designed to ensure all votes are correctly counted and that the final outcome reflects the American people’s will, albeit within a complex and sometimes flawed system.
However, such delays—while entirely legitimate—could exacerbate the already existing risks of political violence and instability in the United States.
In close elections, it’s also possible that some states will require a recount. (EPA/ERIK S. LESSER)
None of these outcomes are predetermined. The political climate in 2024 is distinct from both 2020 and 2016. What happens next hinges on an intricate web of influences that makes it challenging to discern where established patterns may end and new scenarios might begin.
In all of this, one reality stands out: Regardless of the outcome and however long it takes to determine it, the divisions and conspiracy theories that have plagued American politics will not easily fade away. The political knot may indeed remain stubbornly tangled.