Kuo predicts that the total unit shipments for the iPhone 16 in 2024 will reach around 89 million. This figure marks a slight decline from last year’s shipment of 91 million units for the iPhone 15 during the same timeframe. This adjustment suggests that Apple is managing its inventory levels carefully, implying they do not foresee a significant increase in consumer demand for the new models.

Interestingly, the shipment schedule for the iPhone 16 appears to be more front-loaded compared to the iPhone 15, with a greater amount of deliveries expected in August and September. This shift does not reflect a surge in demand but is attributed to the initial production challenges faced by the 5x zoom lens, which was introduced with the Pro Max model in 2023.

Overall, Kuo estimates that Apple will have approximately 15-17 million units ready for pre-orders as the launch date approaches.

When it comes to popularity among the various models, Kuo expects that the iPhone 16 Pro Max will lead the pack with a commanding 38% share of total shipments. Following closely is the iPhone 16 Pro, expected to capture 30% of shipments. The standard iPhone 16 is anticipated to account for 26%, while the iPhone 16 Plus lags behind with a mere 6% market share.