Apple’s journey with its AI initiative has been a slow burn. While the initial six features are set to debut later this month, a revamped version of Siri is not expected to make its mark until next year.
However, one analyst advises caution in setting expectations, suggesting we may not see “substantial” AI capabilities in iPhones until 2026 or 2027.
Speculation had suggested that Apple Intelligence could trigger a surge in iPhone 16 sales, particularly as anyone purchasing a device other than the iPhone 15 Pro would need to upgrade for access to the latest features. Yet, recent sales figures indicate that this year’s iPhone sales are maintaining pace with last year’s, hinting that consumers aren’t yet perceiving AI as a compelling reason to upgrade.
According to Jefferies analyst Edison Lee, this comes as no surprise. As reported by The Street, he remarks that the anticipated 5-10% growth in iPhone sales seems “unlikely” to be realized.
While he acknowledges that Apple has a distinct edge in the AI domain compared to other smartphone makers, he believes it will take 2-3 more years before that advantage significantly impacts new iPhone sales.
“We have a positive outlook for Apple Intelligence in the long run, as Apple uniquely integrates hardware and software to utilize proprietary data for delivering affordable, tailored AI solutions,” Lee commented. “However, the smartphone hardware needs substantial upgrades to support robust AI functions, likely by 2026/2027.”
Lee also sees a brighter horizon for Apple in terms of iPhone sales growth next year, which he attributes more to the anticipated release of the slimmer iPhone 17 Air than to advancements in Apple Intelligence.
“We believe that technology enabling AI-capable smartphones is still 2-3 years off due to challenges related to high-speed memory and sophisticated packaging technology,” he added. “[However,] Apple’s streamlined model (17 Air) in 2025 could stir more upgrade interest.”
Graphic: Apple and Michael Bower/9to5Mac
