The United Nations has declared that 2024 will be “the biggest election year in human history,” with approximately 3.7 billion people across 72 countries eligible to vote. However, not all elections hold the same weight; currently, the world is focused on the upcoming U.S. elections due to their significant global implications.
The United States boasts the title of the world’s largest economy and possesses the most formidable military. Its role extends beyond economics and defense; it serves as a foundational element of numerous international alliances and organizations that promote liberal values worldwide.
This election cycle represents a crucial juncture in U.S. history with the potential to reshape domestic governance and influence the future of the post-World War II world order that the U.S. has largely shaped.
For the first time since 1945, the fundamental principles guiding U.S. relations with other nations are being openly debated. Voters will have a choice between Donald Trump’s Republican platform, which may signal a complete departure from traditional international engagement, and Kamala Harris’s Democratic agenda, which leans toward maintaining strong global ties. Under a Harris administration, it’s expected that the U.S. would continue to uphold commitments to NATO and other alliances.
Tariffs Against China
One of the most striking departures from established U.S. foreign policy is Trump’s proposal to implement a blanket 20% tariff on all imports, with even steeper tariffs on Chinese goods that could reach as high as 60% to 200%, should he take office again. Such actions could lead to inflationary pressures and harm the U.S. economy, while also triggering retaliatory tariffs and destabilizing global trade relations. By restricting access to the largest consumer market, these measures would hinder worldwide efforts to transition to a zero-carbon economy.
Trump appears unconcerned about these ramifications; he intends to withdraw from the Paris Agreement on climate initiatives, dismantle Biden’s environmental regulations, and promote the unrestricted extraction of U.S. oil and gas through deregulated fracking. Executing these plans could potentially add billions of tons of carbon emissions to the atmosphere, undermining global climate change efforts.
Read more:
How Harris and Trump’s economic plans compare
Another significant aspect of the 2024 elections involves the U.S. commitment to defend its allies from hostile nations. As a NATO member, the U.S. is obligated under Article 5 to assist fellow members in the event of an attack, having similar commitments to Japan and South Korea. The Biden administration has rallied NATO support for Ukraine, providing military and financial aid to resist Russian advancements.
In sharp contrast, Trump has signaled a desire to discontinue this support, urging Ukraine to broker peace on Russia’s terms. He perceives alliances as more of a liability than an asset, advocating for a more isolationist approach.
Support for Allies
Former officials, including ex-national security advisor John Bolton, express concerns that Trump could either withdraw the U.S. from NATO during a second term or diminish its effectiveness through minimal support. Trump’s recent remarks about Taiwan—asserting that “Taiwan should pay us for defense. You know, we’re no different than an insurance company”—indicate a waning commitment to U.S. protection of the island.
This election also carries weighty implications for the health of U.S. democracy itself. The integrity of elections and the peaceful transition of power have come under scrutiny. Since entering the Republican primary race in 2016, Trump has rejected every election defeat as illegitimate.
Astoundingly, he has managed to persuade many Republican voters that the 2020 election was rigged, with only one-third of the party persuaded of its legitimacy. When trust in the electoral process erodes, the nation’s ability to unify under a legitimate government becomes precarious.
The Trump camp has outlined its vision for governance should he be re-elected. Project 2025—crafted by a conservative think tank—proposes replacing a significant portion of federal employees with approximately 50,000 officials loyal to him rather than the Constitution. Further, it suggests dismantling several federal agencies, including the Departments of Justice, Energy, and Education, as well as the FBI and the Federal Reserve, to facilitate his policy initiatives.
These proposed changes could open the door to a series of policies viewed by many as authoritarian, such as a potential mass deportation of millions of “illegal immigrants” using the National Guard or military forces if deemed necessary.
The U.S. experiment in democracy has inspired and intrigued people globally since its founding in 1776. Nevertheless, it has never seemed as vulnerable as it does now. The nation faces profound divisions on core issues like taxation, immigration, abortion, trade, energy, and its global role.
For the first time, these divisions appear to overshadow the respect for democratic norms and institutions among many voters. Broadly speaking, it seems that a significant portion of the U.S. population is struggling to accept the outcomes of democratic processes and the legitimacy of their elected leaders. Therefore, the stakes of this election are higher than ever, with greater implications for governance and unity in the U.S.
