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Mississauga, Ontario – April 26, 2025: Canadian leaders are ramping up their campaigns in key districts just two days ahead of a pivotal election, sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump’s controversial remarks. Prime Minister Mark Carney is currently favored, having assured Canadians of his ability to confront challenges from Washington.
A triumph for Carney’s Liberal Party could be one of the most significant political turnarounds in Canadian history.
On January 6, shortly after former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation, the Liberal Party trailed the Conservative Party by over 20 points in most polls, with Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre poised to become the next Prime Minister.
However, following Trump’s introduction of harsh tariff measures and his provocative suggestions about annexing Canada, public sentiment shifted dramatically. Canadians expressed their outrage by booing the U.S. national anthem at sports events and opting out of travel to the U.S.
When Carney replaced the unpopular Trudeau on March 14, he anchored his campaign around the perceived threats from Trump. At 60 years old, Carney, who has never held an elected position, previously led the central banks of both Canada and the UK. He contends that his international financial experience uniquely qualifies him to defend Canada against Trump’s unpredictable trade policies.
On the second-to-last day of campaigning, Carney focused on Ontario, stopping in communities around Toronto that have historically alternated between Liberal and Conservative representation.
"President Trump’s trade war has seriously disrupted the global economy and has betrayed Canada," Carney stated at a rally in Mississauga, located just west of Toronto. "Canadians have begun to recover from that shock, but we must always remember the lessons." He directed pointed criticism towards Poilievre, asserting that he lacks the necessary experience and economic insight to lead during turbulent trade times. "What we need is stability, not chaos. We require calm leadership, not anger," Carney added.
His campaign will conclude with a rally in Windsor, a crucial area for Canada’s auto industry, which has faced challenges due to Trump’s tariffs.
Intense Campaigning
The chaos surrounding Trump’s influence and the transition from Trudeau to Carney has left Poilievre on shaky ground. The 45-year-old Conservative leader, who has served in parliament for two decades, is attempting to redirect the discourse towards issues that fueled public discontent with the Liberals during Trudeau’s time in office, particularly rising living costs.
On Saturday, he campaigned in British Columbia before heading to an evening rally in Ontario. "You can’t endure another four years of this," he told supporters in Delta, British Columbia, reinforcing his argument that Carney represents a continuation of Trudeau’s policies. "To the single mother with empty shelves and a needy family, hold onto hope; change is coming."
While Poilievre has criticized Trump, he has attributed Canada’s vulnerabilities to U.S. protectionism to the Liberal government’s economic mismanagement.
Tightening Competition
Although polls indicate a potential Liberal victory, the race is tightening as the election nears. The CBC’s poll tracking has fluctuated, showing the Liberals with a national lead of seven to eight points at times. However, on Saturday, they recorded 42.5% support compared to the Conservatives’ 38.7%.
One contributing factor that may benefit the Liberals is the dwindling support for left-leaning parties like the New Democrats and the Bloc Québécois. Historically, robust support for these parties has limited the Liberals’ representation in crucial regions such as British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec.
A record-breaking 7.3 million of Canada’s 28.9 million eligible voters cast ballots early over the Easter weekend, marking a 25% increase from 2021.
An Unconventional Campaign
According to Daniel Beland, a political scientist at McGill University, the Conservative strategy to shift the focus away from Trump has largely been unsuccessful. Political analyst Tim Powers echoed that the unusual dynamics of this campaign are not what the Conservatives wanted. They anticipated more debate surrounding affordability, hoping Trudeau would still be his opponent.
The winner of this tightly contested election is expected to be announced shortly after polls close on Monday.
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