NEW YORK: The tourism landscape in the United States has become increasingly uncertain due to recent policy decisions made by President Donald Trump. These moves have upset some international travelers, raising concerns about a potential increase in travel costs and a stronger dollar.
According to a report released by Tourism Economics late last month, arrivals of foreign visitors to the United States are projected to drop by 5.1% in 2025 compared to the previous year, a significant reversal from the previously anticipated growth of 8.8%.
Visitor spending is expected to decrease by 10.9% as well.
Since the report’s release, the situation has worsened, with Tourism Economics President Adam Sacks noting the growing “negative sentiment toward the US.”
In recent weeks, the Trump administration has imposed tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, while also threatening the European Union with similar actions. A comprehensive initiative to limit immigration has also been intensified.
Government agencies such as the US Agency for International Development have faced devastating cuts, resulting in the layoffs of thousands of federal employees, including lawyers and park rangers. Additionally, Trump has proposed controversial policies regarding conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
“The divisive policies and rhetoric from the Trump administration are likely to dissuade travel to the US,” stated Tourism Economics, a branch of Oxford Economics. They suggested that “some organizations might feel pressured to refrain from hosting events or sending employees to the US, negatively impacting business travel.”
The World Tourism Forum Institute remarked that a combination of strict immigration measures, a rising dollar, and international political unrest “could significantly influence international arrivals, potentially reshaping the country’s tourism industry for years to come.”
A survey conducted by YouGov across 16 European and Asian nations revealed that 35% of respondents said they are now less inclined to visit the United States under Trump, compared to 22% who expressed greater interest.
‘A Little Anxious’
Despite this, tourists from France, Uzbekistan, and Argentina interviewed by AFP in Times Square, New York, did not change their travel plans due to Trump’s policies.
Marianela Lopez and Ailen Hadjikovakis, both 33, opted to use their European passports instead of their Argentinean ones to sidestep any potential issues at the border.
“We were a little anxious about the situation, but we decided not to alter our plans,” Lopez remarked.
The Lagardere family, visiting from France, expressed similar sentiments, stating their plans remained unaffected.
“Americans elected this president. That’s democracy. If they’re unhappy, they’ll have a chance to make a change in four years,” noted Laurent Lagardere, 54. “It is what it is; avoiding the US won’t change anything,” he added.
Projected figures indicate that around 77.7 million international tourists are expected in 2024, reflecting a 17% increase from the previous year, according to the National Travel and Tourism Office, though the final numbers from last year are still pending.
Canadians Opting Out of New York
Visitors from Western Europe, who comprised 37% of tourists in 2024, are among those most likely to consider alternate destinations, along with Canadians and Mexicans.
The US Travel Association cautioned in early February that customs tariffs may deter Canadian travelers, the largest group of foreign tourists in the US, accounting for 20.4 million visits in 2024.
Statistics Canada reported a 23% drop in Canadians returning from the US in February compared to the previous year, marking the second month of decline.
In New York, which welcomed 12.9 million international visitors in 2024, the effects have already become apparent, with Canadians canceling tour reservations and a marked decrease in online hotel and Broadway show searches, as stated by NYC Tourism President Julie Coker in an interview with AFP.
She revised her annual projections downward in February but noted that, as of now, only Canadians are voicing reservations about traveling to Trump’s America.
“We aren’t seeing any significant changes from the UK or Europe yet,” she said, “though we are monitoring the situation closely.”
However, British and German authorities recently urged their citizens to exercise caution regarding their travel documents, highlighting the risk of arrest.
United Airlines has reported a “significant decline” in travel from Canada to the US, along with decreasing demand for domestic flights, a trend echoed by several competitors.
According to Tourism Economics, the tourism industry could face revenue losses of around $64 billion in 2025 due to a slump in international and domestic travel.
The current economic climate has left many Americans feeling uncertain, with terms like “recession” and “inflation” instilling fear in tourists, compounded by the possibility of an appreciating dollar, as experts have suggested.
“This will make the US more expensive for incoming travelers, suppressing both visitor numbers and the average duration of stays,” cautioned Tourism Economics.
Industry professionals are also concerned about the implications of stricter immigration policies on major sporting events scheduled to take place in the US, including the Ryder Cup (2025), the FIFA World Cup (2026), and the Summer Olympics in Los Angeles (2026).
