Turkey has detained Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, a key opponent of President Tayyip Erdogan, on allegations of corruption and supporting a terrorist organization. The nation’s main opposition party has labeled this action “a coup against our upcoming president.”
This development follows a prolonged legal assault on opposition members nationwide, viewed by many as a politically motivated effort aimed at undermining their electoral chances and silencing dissent.
The Turkish lira plummeted, dropping by as much as 12% to an unprecedented low of 42 against the dollar, reflecting concerns over the declining rule of law in this crucial emerging market and NATO ally.
Imamoglu, 54, who is ahead of Erdogan in some polls, was expected to be officially announced as the candidate for the presidential nomination by the Republican People’s Party (CHP) within days. He is now under investigation for multiple offenses, including leading a criminal organization, bribery, and fraudulent contracting.
In a handwritten note circulated on social media, the detained mayor stated that the Turkish people would react against the “falsehoods, schemes, and traps” aimed at him. Before heading to the police station, he expressed his determination not to surrender under pressure.
Justice Minister Yilmaz Tunc cautioned against linking Erdogan to Imamoglu’s detention or other legal proceedings, denouncing the use of terms like “coup” in this context and warning against public protests.
Despite a temporary ban on demonstrations and police road closures, hundreds of supporters gathered at the police station, chanting: “The day will come when (Erdogan’s) AK Party is held accountable.”
Larger protests could challenge the government’s resolve amid an ongoing legal crackdown that has already resulted in numerous indictments, the dismissal of several elected opposition mayors, and the imprisonment of a nationalist party leader.
Upcoming Elections
Ozgur Ozel, the CHP leader, announced that the party would proceed with Imamoglu’s selection as its presidential candidate on Sunday, regardless of the circumstances. “Turkey is experiencing a coup against the next President. This is an attempted coup,” he asserted.
With elections scheduled for 2028, Erdogan has reached his term limit as president following his earlier service as prime minister. If he wishes to run again, he must either call for an early election or amend the constitution.
Erdogan, 71, suffered his most significant electoral setback last year during nationwide municipal elections when Imamoglu’s CHP achieved victories in Turkey’s major cities, defeating Erdogan’s ruling AK Party in previously solid strongholds.
“Ultimately, today’s events underscore that no matter the cost, Erdogan’s personal agenda takes precedence, sidelining all else,” said Wolfango Piccoli, co-president at advisory firm Teneo.
The government refutes the opposition’s claims and insists that the judiciary operates independently.
Meanwhile, Ankara is striving to resolve a long-standing insurgency led by the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), whose imprisoned leader recently called for disarmament—a potential significant move toward regional peace.
However, Imamoglu’s detention, linked partly to accusations of aiding the PKK through his electoral alliance with the pro-Kurdish Democratic Regions Party (DEM) last year, may hinder democratic efforts to conclude the insurgency that has resulted in over 40,000 deaths.
DEM, which is the third-largest party in parliament and crucial in promoting the disarmament plea, has stated that Imamoglu’s release is essential to prevent sabotaging the peace initiative.
Market Reaction
Germany, France, and the Council of Europe have condemned Imamoglu’s detention. Human Rights Watch characterized the charges as “politically motivated and unfounded,” demanding his immediate release.
The Istanbul Prosecutor’s Office revealed that around 100 individuals, including journalists and business people, are suspected of engaging in criminal activities linked to certain municipal contracts in the first investigation.
The second investigation involves charges against Imamoglu and six others for allegedly aiding the PKK, an entity designated as terrorist by Turkey and its Western allies.
If the mayor is removed, a government-appointed official may take his place, and it is possible he could be released in the coming days pending any court orders.
This detention occurred just a day after another setback for Imamoglu, as Istanbul University revoked his degree, which, if upheld, would prevent him from participating in presidential elections.
The news of his detention led to a more than 5% decline in Istanbul stocks and triggered one of the steepest intraday drops for the lira on record before it recovered to 38 to the dollar at 11:55 GMT. Analysts suggest this turmoil could impact the ongoing rate-cutting cycle and slow the decline in inflation, which was reported at 39% last month.
The central bank reportedly sold a historic $8-10 billion in foreign currency on Wednesday to stabilize the lira amidst this plunge.
