In the United States, the pathway to the presidency does not rely on winning the highest number of national popular votes. Instead, it operates through a system known as the Electoral College, which assigns electoral votes to each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia primarily based on their population size.
As we approach the November 5 election between Vice President Kamala Harris and her Republican opponent, Donald Trump, several rules of the Electoral College could influence the outcome.
WHAT IS THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE?
When citizens head to the polls to choose a president, they typically see the names of the presidential and vice presidential candidates. However, what they are really doing is casting their votes for a group of electors, also referred to as a “slate.”
There are a total of 538 electoral votes available nationwide, meaning a candidate must obtain 270 of these votes to secure a victory.
Electors are generally loyal party members who commit to backing the candidate that garners the most votes in their respective states. Each elector accounts for one vote in the Electoral College. In the 2020 election, President Joe Biden achieved 306 electoral votes, defeating Trump, who secured 232.
This system, established by the U.S. Constitution, emerged from a compromise among the country’s founders, who debated whether the president should be elected by Congress or through a popular vote.
DO STATES HAVE THE SAME NUMBER OF ELECTORS?
No.
Each state has a number of electors equal to its total representation in Congress, which includes senators and House members. Each state has two senators, but the number of representatives in the House can vary based on population. For instance, California, which has the largest population, boasts 54 electors.
The six least-populated states, along with the District of Columbia, are allotted only three electoral votes each, the minimum. Consequently, one electoral vote in Wyoming (the least populous state) represents roughly 192,000 people, while in Texas, which has a significant population, one electoral vote represents about 730,000 individuals.
Most states employ a winner-takes-all approach, meaning the candidate that receives the plurality of votes in that state claims all its electoral votes. Thus, winning a state by a wide margin is treated the same as winning by just one vote, leading campaigns to concentrate their efforts on states where a modest voting shift can yield all electoral votes. Key battleground states this election cycle include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
CAN A CANDIDATE WIN THE ELECTION WITHOUT CAPTURING THE POPULAR VOTE?
Yes.
Both George W. Bush in 2000 and Donald Trump in 2016 became presidents despite receiving fewer popular votes than their opponents. This has occurred three times in the 19th century as well.
Critics often point to this occurrence as a significant flaw in the system. However, supporters argue that the Electoral College encourages candidates to seek votes across a diverse array of states rather than focusing solely on populous urban areas.
WHEN DO ELECTORS CAST THEIR VOTES?
Electors will convene on December 17 to formally cast their votes and report the results to Congress. The candidate who achieves 270 electoral votes or more will be declared the winner. Congress will officially tally these votes on January 6, with the new president taking the oath of office on January 20.
DO ELECTORS EVER DEFY THE POPULAR VOTE?
Generally, electors participate in a ceremonial role, simply confirming votes for the candidate who won in their state. However, during the 2016 election, seven of the 538 electors voted for candidates other than the ones who won in their states, which was an unusually high number. Three of these electors chose former U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell despite representing states that voted for the Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton. Trump ended up winning that election.
According to the nonpartisan group Fair Vote, at least 37 states and the District of Columbia have laws requiring electors to vote for their pledged candidate.
WHAT IF THERE’S A TIE?
One potential issue with the Electoral College system is the possibility of a 269-269 tie. Should this happen, the newly elected House of Representatives would determine the outcome of the presidency on January 6, with each state voting as a block, as outlined in the 12th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution.
At this moment, Republicans control 26 state delegations, Democrats control 22, and Minnesota and North Carolina are split evenly between both parties.
IS THERE A CHANCE THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE SYSTEM WILL CHANGE?
Following the controversies of the 2020 election, during which Trump falsely claimed victory, Congress attempted to address some of the system’s problems. In 2022, lawmakers passed the Electoral Count Reform Act to clarify that each state’s governor or designated official will certify election results before they are submitted to Congress.
This new law also seeks to avoid a repeat of the 1876 election stalemate, where three states presented “dueling slates of electors”—one slate certified by state legislators and another by a state official. Additionally, the law has established a mandatory deadline for certifying election results, allowing states 36 days post-election to complete any recounts or litigation. This year, the deadline is set for December 11.
Eliminating the Electoral College would necessitate a constitutional amendment.
