Brazil’s beef imports to China are nearing the annual quota limit, which will trigger an additional 55% tariff. This development is expected to lead to rising prices for products across supermarkets and catering services.
According to the latest official report, by July 21, Brazilian beef imports had reached 80% of the permitted annual quota under China’s safeguard measures on imported beef. Industry insiders anticipate the quota will be fully utilized within the next month or two.
Since the implementation of these safeguard measures late last year, importers have operated at maximum capacity throughout this year to acquire beef at pre-tariff prices. They are actively stockpiling inventory ahead of the quota exhaustion and the subsequent imposition of the extra tariff. A representative from a major imported beef distributor noted that China currently holds a substantial stock of Brazilian beef.
Last year, Brazil was China’s leading beef supplier, accounting for around half of the total imported beef valued at approximately CNY56.3 billion (USD8.3 billion). Because Brazilian beef comprises a significant share of China’s total beef imports, reaching the quota and activating the tariff is expected to cause notable price fluctuations, according to industry experts.
Recently, with Brazilian beef imports hitting 80% of the quota, prices have begun to fluctuate, increasing by roughly CNY2 (about 29 US cents) per kilogram. Australian beef, which reached its quota on June 19 and triggered the additional tariff the following day, has already become CNY20 (USD2.95) more expensive per kilogram.
Brazilian beef is primarily purchased by business clients, especially used in pre-made supermarket dishes and for catering. He Wei, a procurement veteran from a large supermarket chain, explained that rising raw material costs could pressure these businesses to switch to beef imported from other countries, such as Uruguay.
A local food manufacturer reported last year revenues of around CNY700 million (USD103.4 million), with CNY290 million from beef products. If tariffs on Brazilian beef increase, these producers are likely to adopt cost-control measures, including securing fixed prices in advance or shifting to beef sources from different countries.
Some traders are planning to order Australian beef after October, according to Gao Ge, another importer. He explained that the long shipping cycle would allow shipments to clear customs next year, enabling traders to take advantage of the new quota and avoid the higher tariff window.
Following the news of the 55% tariff on Australian beef, retail prices at a major Chinese supermarket surged by 17% to 30%. Sales of Australian beef at RT-Mart significantly declined after the tariff was announced. In response, the store has diversified its procurement channels, increasing imports of domestic beef and sourcing more from Argentina and New Zealand to replenish stocks.