Many in the country probably won’t find out the results of the critical battleground state of Pennsylvania on election night, thanks to some specific state laws.
As an assistant professor of political science at Gettysburg College, located in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania, I specialize in American politics, public opinion, and the electoral process. I’ve discussed before why Pennsylvania is vital for both the Harris and Trump campaigns, and how it plays a fundamental role in deciding the outcome of the presidential race.
Here are five key points to understand about Pennsylvania’s election result timeline.
State Regulations on Voting and Counting
According to the U.S. Constitution, states share power with the federal government. Certain powers are reserved solely for the states, while others fall under federal control, such as signing treaties or declaring war. This system, known as federalism, means that the conduct of elections is managed by the states, not the federal government. Each state and its local jurisdictions decide on voting locations, methods for casting ballots, and other administrative procedures.
There’s considerable variation in how elections are conducted among the states. For example, some states require voters to present photo identification, while others use different methods to verify voter identities.
AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar
Moreover, states differ in their ballot counting processes and the speed at which they report results.
Almost all states refrain from announcing election results until after polling stations have closed on Election Day. However, some allow early and mail-in ballots to be counted as they are received, enabling them to provide results more quickly.
As per Pennsylvania’s laws, voters can cast mail-in ballots, but local election officials can’t open the mail-in ballot envelopes until 7 a.m. on Election Day.
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Understanding how Pennsylvania is essential for either Harris or Trump’s Electoral College success
Before 2020, Pennsylvania voters had to provide a valid reason to vote by mail, such as military service abroad. The first instance of no-excuse mail-in voting occurred in 2020, largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in a historic number of mail-in ballots across the nation, including Pennsylvania.
In the 2020 presidential election, out of nearly 7 million voters in Pennsylvania, approximately 2.6 million utilized mail-in voting. This marked a significant increase, as local election officials had never before dealt with such a volume of mail-in ballots, leading to quicker media declarations of unofficial winners in previous elections.
For instance, in 2016, the media declared Trump as Pennsylvania’s victor by 2:29 a.m. the day after Election Day. However, in 2020, it took four days for enough mail-in ballots to be counted for Biden’s victory to be projected in Pennsylvania.
As of 10 a.m. on October 28, 2024, about 2.09 million Pennsylvania voters had requested mail-in ballots. This figure is expected to rise since residents could request mail-in ballots up until October 29. County election boards must receive these ballots by 8 p.m. on Election Day to count them. Additionally, military and overseas absentee voters have until November 12.
Counting Mail-in Ballots Takes Time
It’s hard to determine exactly when Pennsylvania will announce its election winner. The higher the number of ballots, the longer the wait will likely be.
The duration until results are reported will also depend on the closeness of the election outcome.
If the winning margin is slim—just tens of thousands of votes—officials will need to count enough ballots to ensure it becomes mathematically impossible for the other candidate to catch up. Only then will reputable media sources declare a projected winner in the state.
Should the election margin be within half a percentage point, Pennsylvania law mandates an automatic recount, though recounts are generally unlikely to change the outcome of a statewide election.
The Wait May Be Shorter Than in 2020
No one can accurately predict the time frame for results, but there are signs that it might not extend as long as in 2020.
For starters, it seems likely that fewer people in Pennsylvania will vote by mail in 2024. The percentage of mail-in voters dropped during the 2022 midterms compared to 2020, and this trend is expected to continue into 2024. So far, fewer voters have requested mail-in ballots than in 2020.
Election officials’ experience may also speed up the counting process this time. The 2020 election was the first with such a high volume of mail-in ballots.
Additionally, counties have acquired improved machines to enhance efficiency. For instance, Philadelphia County is introducing new equipment to facilitate the quicker opening of mail-in ballot envelopes. Pennsylvania’s Secretary of State Al Schmidt asserted that this should accelerate the counting process, but he also cautioned, as reported by NPR, that a definitive winner might not be declared on election night.
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Anticipating the Process
According to the Associated Press, Pennsylvania will first report smaller batches of mail-in ballots, followed by the in-person votes cast on Election Day, and then the remaining mail-in ballots. This sequential counting might lead to expected trends in the election results.
We can glean some insights from the types of voters requesting mail-in ballots this year. Following the trend from 2020, most mail-in requests come from Democrats, while Republicans tend to favor in-person voting.
Reports for in-person ballots on Election Day are generally faster, as voters will insert their ballots into vote tabulating machines directly at their precincts. In 2020, Trump received strong support from in-person voters, although Republicans are now working to encourage more mail-in participation.
As the mail-in ballots are counted, it is likely the results will shift, with Trump’s percentages decreasing while Harris’s increase based on the demographics of voters who have requested mail-in ballots thus far.
As of October 28, 2024, data from the Pennsylvania Department of State indicated that 56% of requested mail-in ballots were from registered Democrats, 32% from Republicans, and the remaining 13% from voters not affiliated with a party or affiliated with a third party. In 2020, over 60% of mail-in ballot requests came from Democrats and about 25% from Republicans.
Keeping Your Cool
In this age of prevalent conspiracy theories in American politics, it’s essential to remain skeptical of unfounded claims. These theories often gain traction from individuals or groups motivated by self-interest to attract attention on social media, make a profit, or gain political power.
The management of American elections is entrusted to dedicated officials across the political spectrum, and they are monitored by representatives from both parties and impartial watchdog organizations. Academics and journalists nationwide are also vigilant, ensuring any evidence of wrongdoing would quickly come to light.
Counting ballots in Pennsylvania will take time, and officials have stated they will prioritize “accuracy over speed” in the process. Rest assured, the results of the election will eventually be disclosed. Until then, practice patience and witness the workings of one of the world’s oldest democracies.